Maritime Security and Governance Newsletter – Violence at Sea
Violence at Sea
Overview: I was a contributing author on this report for Stable Seas. This report shows that violent non-state actors (VNSAs) exploit maritime spaces far beyond attacking soft targets. While land-based operations have limited their activities, VNSAs operate at sea almost unchallenged due to “sea blindness” — global inattention to maritime threats. They use the oceans for logistics, financing, and operations, and a comprehensive understanding of these activities is essential to counter their resilience.
- Maritime Operational and Financial Activities
VNSA activities at sea are classified under the “5 T” framework: Tactical Support, Targeting, Take, Traffic & Trade, and Tax & Extort. Operational scores (Tactical Support and Targeting) measure the ability to conduct attacks at sea, while financial scores (Take, Traffic & Trade, Tax & Extort) reflect how much VNSAs fund their operations via maritime activities. Both scores highlight strengths and vulnerabilities for targeted countermeasures. - Diverse Strategies and VNSA Profiles
The report analyzes 43 VNSAs, describing ideology, operational areas, history, and recent events. Each profile includes operational and financial scores, along with affiliations, outlooks, and opportunities. This demonstrates that maritime strategies are as varied as the groups themselves, requiring tailored policy and enforcement responses. - Exploitation of Maritime Space
VNSAs exploit weakly governed or contested maritime areas, often along interstate boundaries, to move personnel, smuggle goods, and conduct illicit activities. These zones serve as strategic refuges when land routes are restricted, amplifying resilience and operational reach. - Disconnect Between Land and Sea Operations
Land-based law enforcement and military efforts are frequently poorly coordinated with maritime agencies. Integrated operations across domains are critical to prevent VNSAs from exploiting gaps in surveillance and enforcement.
Bottom Line: VNSAs leverage the maritime domain for both operational and financial purposes, sustaining resilience despite land-based pressure. The “5 T” framework provides a method to assess and counter these threats. Effective strategies require integrated maritime governance, financial disruption of VNSA funding, and coordinated regional enforcement to close the gaps that extremists currently exploit.
Maritime Security and Governance Newsletter – Bay of Bengal Security
Bay of Bengal Security
Overview: I was contributing author on this report for Stable Seas. This report examines maritime security and governance in the Bay of Bengal, highlighting how economic development, resource management, and illicit activity intersect in the region. While the maritime domain has significant potential for trade, fisheries, and coastal development, structural and governance challenges leave vulnerabilities that can be exploited by criminal networks and hinder regional prosperity.
- Blue Economy & Maritime Development
The Bay of Bengal countries are increasingly investing in shipping, ports, fisheries, tourism, and offshore hydrocarbons. Properly managed, these sectors can drive economic growth and coastal welfare, but substantial investment and public–private partnerships are needed to realize their full potential. - Coastal Welfare & Community Resilience
Coastal communities have seen improvements in socioeconomic conditions, yet pockets of poverty remain. Conflict-affected areas and vulnerable populations, including stateless groups, face ongoing risks to both livelihoods and physical security. - Rule of Law & Corruption Challenges
Corruption, weak governance, and unequal service provision undermine maritime trade, blue-economy growth, and enforcement against illicit networks. These gaps allow activities such as human trafficking and kidnapping for ransom to persist in some areas. - Piracy, Illicit Trades, and Migration
While piracy has declined overall, localized threats persist, particularly near congested ports and sensitive coastal areas. The maritime space also serves as a transit route for drugs and other illicit goods, and irregular migration driven by poverty, conflict, or climate risks exposes migrants to exploitation.
Bottom Line: The maritime security situation in the Bay of Bengal is fundamentally shaped by structural vulnerabilities in coastal resilience, governance, enforcement capacity, and regional coordination. A durable solution will require strengthening institutions, investing in inclusive coastal development, and enhancing regional cooperation — bringing together economic, governance and security dimensions in a cohesive strategy.
Maritime Security and Governance Newsletter – BARMM Blue Economy
BARMM Blue Economy
Overview: I was the lead author in this policy breif highlighting how BARMM’s vast coastal and marine resources remain significantly underdeveloped. Despite strong potential for fisheries, seaweed farming, tourism, and other blue-economy activities, the region faces governance gaps, weak institutions, and limited investment — preventing these resources from generating sustainable livelihoods or long-term economic growth.
- Untapped Coastal and Marine Potential
BARMM’s waters contain abundant fisheries, seaweed, and biodiversity assets, yet these resources generate only modest economic returns. Limited investment and weak value-chain development prevent coastal communities from benefiting. - Institutional Capacity and Planning Gaps
The region lacks robust maritime governance structures, including clear policies, regulatory frameworks, and coordinated planning. These weaknesses hinder effective management and long-term blue-economy strategy formation. - Challenges Facing Coastal Livelihoods
Small-scale fishers, seaweed farmers, and coastal households rely heavily on fragile natural resources but lack access to markets, technology, and stable infrastructure. These constraints limit income and reduce resilience. - Environmental Risks and Resource Degradation
Declining fish stocks, habitat loss, and insufficient conservation measures threaten the sustainability of BARMM’s marine ecosystems. Without stronger environmental protections, economic opportunities may erode over time.
Bottom Line: BARMM’s blue economy presents a powerful avenue for inclusive, sustainable development — but only if governance, environmental management, and economic support systems are strengthened. With the right foundations in place, the region’s coastal and marine resources can drive long-term prosperity for its communities.
Maritime Security and Governance Newsletter – Bay of Bengal Security
Bay of Bengal Security
Overview: I was the lead author on this policy breif for Stable Seas. The Bay of Bengal region is confronted by a complex set of maritime security challenges that are deeply interlinked: coastal economic fragility, governance shortfalls, widespread illicit maritime activity, and limited enforcement capacity. The research asserts that achieving sustainable maritime security in the region will depend on coordinated, multi-dimensional responses — ideally led by regional frameworks such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi‑Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).
- Coastal Economies Under Strain
Many littoral states around the Bay of Bengal show pronounced economic and infrastructure deficits in coastal zones – including limited access to stable livelihoods, social services, and resilience to environmental stressors. These weaknesses leave coastal populations and maritime-dependent communities especially vulnerable to exploitation. - Governance and Legal Gaps
Maritime law-enforcement and governance in the region suffer from systemic issues such as corruption, political exclusion, weak institutional capacity, and incomplete judicial follow-through. These structural deficits reduce public trust, hamper coordinated law-enforcement efforts, and create space for actors operating outside the formal system. - Illicit Maritime Activity
Although high-profile piracy incidents may have declined, the Bay of Bengal continues to see a range of illicit maritime activities: smuggling of goods and people, illegal/unreported/unregulated (IUU) fishing, unsafe migration routes, and other crimes that exploit the region’s large, porous maritime zones and weak surveillance regimes. - Enforcement & Regional Coordination
Many states in the Bay of Bengal region lack sufficient maritime assets and face budgetary or institutional constraints. Regional cooperation mechanisms exist, but they are often under-resourced, fragmented, or not consistently implemented — limiting their effectiveness in addressing transnational maritime challenges.
Bottom Line: The maritime security situation in the Bay of Bengal is fundamentally shaped by structural vulnerabilities in coastal resilience, governance, enforcement capacity, and regional coordination. A durable solution will require strengthening institutions, investing in inclusive coastal development, and enhancing regional cooperation — bringing together economic, governance and security dimensions in a cohesive strategy.
Maritime Security and Governance Newsletter – Indian Ocean Security
Indian Ocean Security
Overview: I was the lead author on this policy brief for Stable Seas. Maritime security in the Indian Ocean is shaped by overlapping issues such as coastal economic fragility, weak governance, illicit maritime activity, and inadequate enforcement capabilities. These interconnected challenges create vulnerabilities that threaten not only national stability but also regional cooperation and development. The article argues that sustainable maritime security in the Indian Ocean depends on coordinated, multidimensional responses led by frameworks like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA).
- Economic and Coastal Vulnerability:
Many coastal communities in the Indian Ocean lack access to economic opportunity, infrastructure, and social services. Environmental stress and exclusion from maritime development leave them exposed to exploitation by criminal networks and vulnerable to instability. - Governance and Rule of Law Gaps:
Widespread corruption, political exclusion, and limited judicial capacity undermine maritime law enforcement. These governance deficits reduce public trust and allow illicit maritime actors to operate across a wide area. - Persistent Illicit Maritime Activity:
Despite a decline in large-scale piracy, threats such as smuggling, human trafficking, illegal fishing, and unsafe maritime migration remain widespread. These activities exploit weak surveillance and enforcement across vast and porous maritime zones. - Limited Enforcement and Regional Coordination:
Most Indian Ocean states lack sufficient maritime assets, trained personnel, and surveillance infrastructure. Regional institutions and coordination mechanisms exist but are often fragmented, under-resourced, or inconsistently implemented.
Bottom Line: The Indian Ocean’s maritime security landscape is defined by structural weaknesses in governance, enforcement, and coastal resilience. A durable solution requires stronger institutions, more inclusive development, and enhanced regional cooperation to address these challenges collectively.
Maritime Security and Governance Newsletter – Bangaldesh Coastal Trafficking
Bangaldesh Coastal Trafficking
Overview: This article I wrote for Stable Seas explores how Bangladesh is confronting maritime drug trafficking amid rising addiction rates and regional instability. Drug traffickers exploit gaps in surveillance and enforcement, using the Bay of Bengal to smuggle yaba pills from Myanmar. The article argues that strengthening interagency coordination, regional partnerships, and capacity-building is essential to securing Bangladesh’s maritime domain.
- Insurgent-Fueled Drug Trade:
Drug trafficking networks linked to Myanmar-based insurgent groups—such as the Arakan Army—smuggle yaba through maritime routes, using profits to fund conflict. This not only drives addiction in Bangladesh but also contributes to displacement and insecurity in the region. - Closing Enforcement Gaps:
Bangladesh’s Coast Guard lacks sufficient assets to patrol its vast maritime zone. The 2030 Coast Guard Plan aims to expand coverage through new vessels, UAVs, and personnel, while improving coordination with the Navy and other agencies under the National Narcotics Control Board. - Boosting Regional and International Cooperation:
Joint patrols with India and engagement with UNODC programs provide training and support. Expanding bilateral efforts with Myanmar, especially through its new coast guard, could improve real-time interdiction and information sharing. - Smart Surveillance and Targeted Action:
Smugglers often use fishing vessels and migration routes to avoid detection. Improving maritime domain awareness, investing in low-cost tracking tools, and enhancing sea-rescue and border response capabilities are key to addressing these covert methods.
Bottom Line: Bangladesh’s maritime drug trade poses a growing threat to public health and regional security. A mix of smarter surveillance, stronger coast guard capacity, and regionally aligned partnerships is needed to disrupt trafficking networks and improve security.
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